In 2011, total installed capacity of national power plant reached 39,899 MW consisting of power plants of State Electricity Enterprise for 30,529 MW (77%), Independent Power Producers for 7,667 MW (19%), and Private Power Utilities for 1,704 MW (4%). The power plant installed capacity has increased by 9,045 MW since 2007 or growing by 29% in 5 years.
Real economic growth assumptions for the next twenty years (2012 – 2031) used to prepare electricity need estimates to transform Indonesia into a developed country in 2025 are 6.4 – 7.5 percent for the period 2011 – 2014, and 8.0 – 9.0 percent for the period 2015 – 2025. The economic growth shall be accompanied with the decline in inflation rate from 6.5 percent in the period 2011 – 2014 to 3.0 percent in the period 2015 - 2025.
Besides economic growth, electricity consumption hike is also influenced by population/household growth. Population growth for the next twenty years (2012 – 2031) nationally is assumed averagely for around 1.7% per year, in Java-Bali averagely around 1.3% per year and outside Java-Bali averagely around 1.5% per year.
By the assumptions, then electricity need growth is projected around 11% per year nationally, consisting of Java-Bali averagely around 9.2% per year and outside Java-Bali averagely around 14.8% per year. Elasticity for the assumptions shall be around 1.3 nationally, around 1.1 for Java – Bali, and around 1.7 for outside Java – Bali.
With electricity need growth projection averagely 11% per year, then Indonesian electricity need estimates for 2016 shall be 244 TWh, 2021 shall be 395 TWh, 2026 shall be 666 TWh, and 2031 shall be 1,248 TWh.
To fulfill the high electricity need growth, then total additional power needs until 2031 shall be around 272 GW or averagely 13.6 GW per year.
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