WEST SUMATERA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY PLAN

For those who are engaged in power plant development, I would like to share the following with regard to the above subject. Hoping to be of use. 

Electricity Condition
Around 95% of electricity need of West Sumatera is supplied by Sumatera Power Distribution and Transmission Center (SPDTC) through 150 kV transmission network and the rest is supplied by isolated system power plants in Mentawai Islands and Sungai Penuh managed by West Sumatera Region of State Electricity Enterprise. In 2011 peak utilization in West Sumatera System was 424.49 MW.

Total installed capacity of power plants in West Sumatera up to 2011 was 631.48 MW consisting of Steam Power Plants 200 MW, Gas Power Plants 64,45 MW, Diesel Power Plants 112,94 MW, Hydro Power Plants 253,76 MW, and Micro Hydro Power Plants 0.33 MW. Total electricity sale for West Sumatera in 2011 reached 2,403.09 GWh.

                 
Energy Potentials
West Sumatera has diversified energy potentials consisting of coal, thermal, hydro, and coal bed methane. Coal potentials are estimated to reach 958.49 million tonnes. Thermal power potentials are estimated to reach 2,045 Mwe, scattered in 17 locations namely Simisioh, Cubadak, Talu, Panti, Lubuk Sikaping, Situjuh, Bonjol, Kota Baru Merapi, Maninjau, Sumanik, Priangan, Bukit Kili/G Talang, Surian, G Talang, Muaralabuh, Liki–Pinangawan, and Pincurak. Hydro power potentials are estimated to reach 625.1 MW, scattered in 7 locations namely Batanghari-4, Sinamar-1, Sinamar-2, Masang-2, Gumanti-1, Anai-1, and Kuantan-2.  Coal Bed Methane potentials are estimated to reach 0.5 TCF.
                        
Electricity Demand Estimate   
It is projected that demand for electricity in West Sumatera for the period 2012–2031 shall grow by 14% per year so that in 2031 electricity need is expected to reached 31.3 TWh. To fulfill estimated peak utilization growth of averagely around 13.7% per year until 2031, then additional power of averagely around 369 MW per year shall be needed.

NORTH SUMATERA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY PLAN

Electricity Condition

Almost all of North Sumatera electricity need (99,9%) is supplied by Sumatera Power Distribution and Transmission Center (SPDTC) through 150 kV transmission network, and the rest by isolated system power plants in Pulau Nias, Tello, and Sembilan managed by North Sumatera Region of State Electricity Enterprise. In 2011 peak utilization in North Sumatera System was 1,253.52 MW.

Total installed capacity of power plants in North Sumatera up to 2011 was 2,066.10 MW consisting of Steam Power Plants for 520 MW, Gas Power Plants for 223,29 MW, Steam and Gas Power Plants for 214.89 MW, Diesel Power Plants for 158.42 MW, Hydro Power Plants for 922.50 MW, Mini Hydro Power Plants for 15 MW, and Thermal Power Plants for 12 MW. Total electricity sale for North Sumatera in 2011 was 7,194 GWh.

Energy Potentials

North Sumatera has diversified energy potentials for power plants consisting of hydro, thermal, oil, natural gas, and coal. Hydro power potentials are estimated to reach 1,241.5 MW, scattered in 14 locations namely Kumbih-3, Simanggo-2, Raisan-1, Toru-2, Toru-3, Sibudong-4, Ordi-3, Ordi-5, Bila-2, Siria, Wampu, Lake Toba, Asahan-3, and Asahan-4-5. Thermal power potentials are estimated to reach 3,237 MWe, scattered in 16 locations namely Beras, Lau Debuk-Debuk/Sibayak, Marike, Dolok Marawa, Pusuk Bukit–Danau Toba, Simbolon–Samosir, Pagaran, Helatoba, Sipaholon, Sarula, Sibual buali, Namora Ilangit, Sibubuhan, S Merapi–Sampuraga, and Sampuraga Roburan. Oil potentials are estimated to reach 110.85 MMSTB, natural gas 1.29 TSCF, and coal 26.97 million tonnes.

Electricity  Demand Estimate

It is projected that demand for electricity in North Sumatera for the period 2012–2031 shall grow by 1.1% per year so that in 2031 electricity need is expected to reached 130.0 TWh. To fulfill estimated peak utilization growth of averagely around 15.6% per year until 2031, then additional power of averagely around 1,495 MW per year shall be needed.

ACEH ELECTRICITY SUPPLY PLAN

Current Electricity Condition

Sumatera Power Distribution and Transmission Center (SPDTC) supplies most of  Aceh electricity need through 150 kV transmission network and the rest is supplied by those isolated system power plants managed by Aceh Region of State Electricity Enterprise. In 2011 peak utilization in Aceh System was around 322.68 MW.

Total installed capacity of Aceh power plants up to 2011 was 463,52 MW consisting of Steam Power Plants for 15 MW, Diesel Power Plants for 446.67 MW, Hydro Power Plants for 1.75 MW, and Micro Hydro Power Plants for 0.10 MW. Total electricity sale of Aceh in 2011 was 1,580 GWh.

Energy Potentials

Aceh has diversified energy resource potentials for power plants consisting of hydro, thermal, oil, gas, and coal. Hydro power potentials are estimated to reach 1,655.1 MW, scattered in 18 locations namely Jambo Papeun-3, Woyla-2, Teunom-2, Teunom-3, Kluet-1, Kluet-3, Meulaboh-2, Meulaboh-5, Ramasan-1, Sibubung-1, Sibubung-3, Seunangan-3, Teripa-4, Tampur-1, Teunom-1, Peusangan-1-2, Peusangan-4, and Lawe Mamas.

Thermal power potentials are estimated to reach 1,232 Mwe, scattered in 16 locations namely Lho Pria Laot, Jaboi, Ie Seum - Krueng Raya, Seulawah Agam, Alur Canang, Alue Long – Bangga, Tangse, Rimba Raya, G Geureudong, Simpang Balik, Silih Nara, Meranti, Brawang Buaya, KafI, G Kembar, and Dolok Perkirapan. Oil potentials are estimated to reach 121.65 MMSTB, gas 5.56 TSCF, and coal 450.15 million tonnes.  

Electricity  Demand Estimate  

It is projected that demand for electricity for the period 2012-2031 shall grow averagely around 19.7% per year so that in 2031 electricity need is expected to reach 55.6 TWh. To fulfill estimated peak utilization growth of averagely around 19.4% per year until 2031, then additional power of averagely around 741 MW per year shall be needed.  

INDONESIAN POWER PLANT DEVELOPMENT

In 2011, total installed capacity of national power plant reached 39,899 MW consisting of power plants of State Electricity Enterprise for 30,529 MW (77%), Independent Power Producers for 7,667 MW (19%), and Private Power Utilities for 1,704 MW (4%). The power plant installed capacity has increased by 9,045 MW since 2007 or growing by 29% in 5 years.

Real economic growth assumptions for the next twenty years (2012 – 2031) used to prepare electricity need estimates to transform Indonesia into a developed country in 2025 are 6.4 – 7.5 percent for the period 2011 – 2014, and 8.0 – 9.0 percent for the period 2015 – 2025. The economic growth shall be accompanied with the decline in inflation rate from 6.5 percent in the period 2011 – 2014 to 3.0 percent in the period 2015 - 2025.

Besides economic growth, electricity consumption hike is also influenced by population/household growth. Population growth for the next twenty years (2012 – 2031) nationally is assumed averagely for around 1.7% per year, in Java-Bali averagely around 1.3% per year and outside Java-Bali averagely around 1.5% per year.

By the assumptions, then electricity need growth is projected around 11% per year nationally, consisting of Java-Bali averagely around 9.2% per year and outside Java-Bali averagely around 14.8% per year. Elasticity for the assumptions shall be around 1.3 nationally, around 1.1 for Java – Bali, and around 1.7 for outside Java – Bali.

With electricity need growth projection averagely 11% per year, then Indonesian electricity need estimates for 2016 shall be 244 TWh, 2021 shall be 395 TWh, 2026 shall be 666 TWh, and 2031 shall be 1,248 TWh.

To fulfill the high electricity need growth, then total additional power needs until 2031 shall be around 272 GW or averagely 13.6 GW per year. 

THE MINISTER OF FINANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA REGULATION NUMBER: 77/PMK.01/2011

For those who are engaged in power plant development, I would further like to share the following main points from the above subject:

-          Business feasibility guarantee is a confirmation that central government c.q. the Minister of Finance guarantees the feasibility of business of State Electricity Enterprise based on authorities of the Minister Finance.

-          Electricity generation and/or transmission development by using Renewable Energy, Coal, and Gas is the electricity generation and/or transmission development projects as stated by the Minister of Energy And Mineral Resources based on President Regulation Number 4 of Year 2010 regarding the Assignment to State Electricity Enterprise to speed up electricity generation development which uses Renewable Energy, Coal and Gas.

-          Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is electricity purchase agreement between State Electricity Enterprise and Private Electricity Developers.

-          Shortfall is State Electricity Enterprise fund condition which is not adequate to fulfill payment obligations in accordance with PPA caused by central government’s actions/decisions which significantly affect negatively electricity generation and/or transmission development projects.

-          Feasibility Guarantee is given by central government c.q. the Minister of Finance to State Electricity Enterprise for electricity generation and/or transmission development cooperation with Private Electricity Developers as referred to by President Regulation Number 4 of Year 2010 regarding the Assignment to State Electricity Enterprise to Speed up Electricity Generation Development which uses Renewable Energy, Coal, and Gas.

-          The Minister of Finance on behalf of central government shall give Feasibility Guarantee to State Electricity Enterprise for electricity generation and/ or transmission development.

-          State Electricity Enterprise may advise the existence of Feasibility Guarantee to Private Electricity Developers.

-          Feasibility Guarantee is given to State Electricity Enterprise in the form of letter of guarantee stating that central government guarantees State Electricity Enterprise for default in fulfilling payment obligations under PPA in case of shortfall.

-          Feasibility Guarantee given to State Electricity Enterprise shall be in the forms of Public Service Obligations (PSO) finansial compensation through electricity subsidy or liquidity facility to guarantee business feasibility of State Electricity Enterprise caused by central government’s actions/decisions leading to default of State Electricity Enterprise or loss compensation obligations to Private Electricity Developers.

-          Fiscal liquidity facilities for loss compensation obligations to Private Electricity Developers maximum shall be for total investment already incurred plus interest if investment is financed by loans.

-          Funding commitment of Private Electricity Developers constitutes financial institutions loan agreement draft which terms and conditions should have prior approval of the Minister of Finance.

PRESIDENT REGULATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA NUMBER: 4 OF YEAR 2010

For those who are engaged in power plant development, I would further like to share the following main points from the above subject:

-          Whereas to speed up electricity generation energy diversification to non oil, then it is necessary to speed up electricity generation development which uses renewable energy, coal, and gas.

-          Whereas based on the consideration, it is necessary to assign State Electricity Enterprise to speed up electricity generation development which uses renewable energy, coal, and gas through President Regulation.

-          Electricity generation development which uses renewable energy, coal, and gas speed up shall be done through the assignment of State Electricity Enterprise by the central government and cooperation between State Electricity Enterprise and private electricity developers under electricity sale purchase scheme.

-          Electricity generation which uses renewable energy, coal, and gas should use environtment friendly technology in accordance with the prevailing laws and regulations.

-          For this electricity generation development, all licences on Environment Impact Analysis (EIA), transmission line compensation and clearence, and land acquisition process shall be settled in the period at the longest 120 (one hundred twenty) days by the authorized officials/agencies since it is firstly applied.

-          For this electricity generation and transmission development, central government guarantees business feasibility of State Electricity Enterprise in accordance with the prevailing laws and regulations.

-          Electricity generation and transmission development may enjoy certain facilities in the forms of import duty exemption and other fiscal facilities as provisioned by the Minister of Finance.

-          Electricity generation and transmission development shall be done by prioritizing domestic products utilization in accordance with the prevailing laws and regulations.

-          This President Regulation is effective since date of promulgation until 31 December 2014.

GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA NUMBER: 14 OF YEAR 2012

For those who are engaged in power plant development, I would further like to share the following main points from the above subject:

-          Integrated electricity production, distribution, and sale shall be done in 1 (one) business region by 1 (one) business entity.
-          The business entity covers state owned companies, provincial government owned companies, Indonesian legal entity private companies, cooperatives, and public self efforts engaged in electricity supply.
-          In case of state owned companies can not accept the priority given, the Minister, governor, or mayor in accordance with their authorities shall give the opportunity to provincial government owned companies, Indonesian legal entity private companies, cooperatives, or public self efforts to supply the electricity.
-          The efforts to supply electricity for public consumption shall be done in accordance with National Electricity General Plan and Electricity Supply Business Plan.
-          Electricity supply business licence may be given for the period of at the longest 30 (thirty) years subject to extension.
-          In case of electricity supply business licence is applied for generation, apart from fulfilling technical requirements it should also be equipped with Power Purchase Agreement between the applicant and the electricity prospective buyer.
-          Electricity supply business plan should be prepared by the applicant by taking into account national electricity general plan.
-          Electricity supply business plan shall be used by electricity supply business licence holders as guidelines in running electricity supply business activities.
-          Electricity supply business licence holders should notify customers at the latest 24 (twenty four) hours in advance before electricity supply temporary stoppage.-          Electricity supply business licence holders should use domestic products and potentials in accordance with the prevailing laws and regulations.

LAW OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA NUMBER: 30 OF YEAR 2009

For those who are engaged in power plant development, I would like to share the following main points from the above subject:

-          Electricity general plan is a plan to develop electricity supply system covering generation, transmission, and distribution aspects of electricity to fulfill electricity demand.

-          The efforts to supply electricity by central government and provincial government shall be done by state owned companies and provincial government owned companies.

-          Private companies, cooperatives, and public self efforts may participate in the efforts to supply electricity.

-          The efforts to supply electricity for public consumption can be done by state owned companies, provincial government owned companies, private companies, cooperatives, and public self efforts engaged in electricity production.

-          Primary energy resources existing domestically and/or imported from overseas should be used optimally in accordance  with national energy policy to ensure sustainable electricity supply.

-          Primary energy resources utilization should prioritize new and renewable energy resources.

-          National electricity general plan shall be prepared based on national energy policy and stated by central government after due consultation with People Representative Assembly of the Republic of Indonesia.

-          State owned companies shall be given first priority to supply electricity for public consumption.

-          For those regions which have not been amply supplied with electricity, central government or provincial government in accordance with their authorities shall give the opportunities to provincial government owned companies, private companies, or cooperatives to act as integrated electricity suppliers.

-          Every effort to supply electricity should fulfill the prevailing environment laws and regulations.

Why Not Invest In Indonesia

As one of the biggest democratic countries in the world, Indonesia enjoys political stability, economic growth, and sustainable development. With GDP/capita of USD 90 in the sixties, it has grown to USD 3,600 by the end of 2012.

Currently with total population of around 250 million people, Indonesia has alot to offer to investors. Toll roads, power plants, real estates, apartments, hotels, and automotives, are some amongst those sectors to mention.

In 2012 GDP growth was 6.2%, inflation rate 4.3%, state budget deficit 1.86%, and debt ratio 24%. So, why not invest in Indonesia.